Manchester City vs Chelsea

About the highly anticipated matchup between crosstown rivals Manchester City and Chelsea scheduled for Saturday evening. Etihad Stadium is expected to be packed to the brim for the Round 23 Premier League showdown kicking off at 17:30 UTC. Speculation has run rampant regarding potential starting XIs in the days leading up to the contest, though fans will have to wait until closer to first whistle to learn specifics from the managers. The storied history between the clubs is well documented, with Manchester City holding a 25-12-6 all-time series edge along with oddsmakers favoring the hosts by a slight margin of 2.10 for victory. How the action unfolds on the pitch promises drama and excitement galore as this rivalry adds another chapter to its long-standing legacy.

Numbers Game: New-look Man City face top-four showdown with Chelsea

Wednesday’s dramatic 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain left Manchester City on the brink of an early Champions League exit, with their worst campaign under Pep Guardiola threatening to reach a new lows.

In the Premier League, however, City have turned a corner lately, taking 10 points from their last four games to boost their hopes of a top-four finish.

They have a chance to move into the Champions League spots on Saturday, when they welcome Chelsea to the Etihad Stadium.

This will be the latest City have faced Chelsea in the Premier League while below them in the table since 2016-17. On that occasion, Antonio Conte’s Blues won 2-1 at Stamford Bridge on Matchday 30 en route to winning the title.

Enzo Maresca’s hopes of overseeing a title charge are surely over after Chelsea went five league games without a victory either side of New Year, though they put a halt to their slump by beating Wolves 3-1 on Monday.

Which way will Saturday’s heavyweight contest go? Read on for our Opta-powered preview.

What’s expected? 

City are considered favourites for Saturday’s game, but with the champions assigned a 46.3% win probability, the supercomputer is not ruling out a result for Chelsea.

The chances of a draw are rated at 23.6%, with Chelsea assigned a 30.2% chance of victory.

City have lost their last three Premier League games played immediately after a European midweek game, as many as they had in their previous 34 (21 wins, 10 draws). The last time the Citizens lost four such matches in a single campaign was back in 2010-11.

In the supercomputer’s season predictions, City’s title hopes are rated at 0.2%, but they do make the top four in 65.6% of simulations, with Chelsea doing so in 43.8% of scenarios.

City are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games against Chelsea, winning five and drawing two since a 2-1 home loss in May 2021, a result that delayed their coronation as Premier League champions.

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